UCLA Forecast Warns of Iran-Related Oil Shock as Top U.S. Economic Threat

The latest UCLA Anderson Forecast for June 2026 highlights an oil shock stemming from Iran as the primary inflationary risk to the U.S. economy, surpassing previous concerns about tariffs. The forecast anticipates GDP growth around 2.1% and inflation peaking at 4.5% in 2026. These projections are largely attributed to ongoing disruptions from the conflict in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.