IMF projects global growth at 3.0% in 2026, warns of persistent inflation and geopolitical risks

The International Monetary Fund's July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update projects global growth at 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, a slight slowdown from 2024-25. The report highlights the "Global Economy in Crosscurrents of War and Technology," noting that the war in the Middle East and accelerated demand in the global technology cycle (driven by AI) are key factors. Global headline inflation is expected to rise from 4.1% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2026 before easing, indicating a stall in the disinflation trend. Risks remain tilted to the downside due to potential renewed Middle East conflict, trade fragmentation, and a possible correction in technology-driven expectations.