Middle East Conflict and New Tariffs Pose Fresh Risks to U.S. Economic Outlook

Renewed combat operations in the Persian Gulf and recent trade policy announcements, including new tariffs, are raising concerns about the U.S. economic outlook. Oil prices briefly surpassed $100 a barrel, and gas prices are rising. Despite these risks, economists note little sign of a recession, with first-time unemployment claims at their lowest since 1969. The federal budget deficit and national debt are also increasing, requiring more Treasury borrowing.