Experts Predict Federal Reserve to Hold Rates in July, But Rising Oil Prices Fuel Bets for Later Hike

Despite expectations for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming July meeting, surging oil prices have led investors to significantly increase their bets on a potential rate hike later in 2026. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has reiterated the commitment to a 2% inflation target, with nearly half of policymakers at the June meeting indicating support for a hike this year. Oil prices recently surpassed $100 a barrel, suggesting persistent inflation.