Battle for Mideast oil market share begins as Strait of Hormuz traffic recovers

Middle East oil producers are initiating efforts to regain market share lost during the Iran war, coinciding with the gradual recovery of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This competition among current and former OPEC members is typically expected to drive down crude prices, though immediate relief for consumers at the pump is not anticipated. Saudi Arabia's share of Asian crude imports, which fell to a record low of 9% in September, is projected to recover to around 14% in October. The combined crude production from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait is expected to average 17.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, up from approximately 21 million bpd before the war. Despite ongoing risks in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf producers are increasing exports to rebuild customer relationships. The global crude supply deficit is forecast to narrow to 250,000 bpd in October from nearly 4 million bpd in May.