NOAA Issues El Niño Advisory, Forecasting Potential for Historic Intensification

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a formal El Niño Advisory, indicating a rapid return and acceleration of the warming trend in the tropical Pacific. Forecasters place the odds of a very strong event above 90% as the Northern Hemisphere enters fall and winter, with a 69% chance of reaching historic levels, rivaling the strongest events since 1950. This marks a significant turnaround from early 2026, with ocean temperatures and atmospheric winds reinforcing each other to drive faster-than-usual surface water heating.