NOAA Raises Probability of Historic-Strength El Niño for October–December 2026

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has increased the probability of a historically strong El Niño event during October–December 2026 to 75%, up from 69% in August. This strengthening climate pattern is expected to significantly influence U.S. weather through winter 2026/27, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.