Global economic growth projected to slow in 2026, with Iran war disruptions partially offset by AI boom

The global economy is forecast to experience a modest slowdown in 2026, with real global GDP growth projected to decrease from 3.3 percent in 2025 to 3.0 percent. This outlook is significantly clouded by the ongoing Iran war, which has disrupted energy markets and supply chains, pushing up inflation. However, accelerated demand-driven momentum in the global technology cycle, particularly due to advances in artificial intelligence, is partly offsetting these negative effects.