WTO Raises 2026 Merchandise Trade Growth Forecast, Citing AI Boom, But Warns of Middle East Conflict Impact on Services

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised its global merchandise trade growth forecast for 2026 upwards to 3.9%, from an earlier 1.9%, attributing the increase to supply chain adaptation and robust investment in artificial intelligence. However, the WTO's latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report simultaneously lowered the outlook for commercial services trade in 2026 to 3.3% from 4.8%, citing the ongoing Middle East conflict as a significant factor.