UNCTAD Lowers 2026 Global Growth Forecast to 2.6% Amid Middle East Energy Shock

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has projected a slowdown in global economic growth to 2.6% in 2026, down from 2.9% in 2025. This revision is primarily attributed to an energy shock stemming from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which is testing the resilience of the global economy through rising energy costs, trade fragmentation, and financial market vulnerabilities. Asia is expected to be a key driver, accounting for 59% of global growth, led by India, China, and Indonesia. Global trade in goods and services is still forecast to grow by 4% in constant prices, reaching a record $35 trillion in 2025, though higher energy prices are influencing trade values.