World Bank projects global growth to slow to 2.5% in 2026, citing Middle East conflict and energy price increases.

The World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospects report, published on October 23, 2026, projects a slowdown in global growth to 2.5 percent in 2026. This deceleration is primarily attributed to the Middle East conflict, which has driven sharp energy price increases and renewed inflation. Emerging market and developing economies are expected to face the weakest per capita income growth since the pandemic. Risks remain skewed to the downside, including escalating hostilities, further commodity market disruptions, and additional geopolitical strains, although broader AI adoption offers some upside.