Crude Oil Futures Remain Elevated as Middle East Geopolitical Risk Sustains Price Premium

Crude oil futures, including WTI and Brent, remain elevated above $100/bbl, with a steep backwardated curve extending to 2037, reflecting a sustained geopolitical risk premium. War-related disruptions in the Middle East, high refinery margins for middle distillates, and still-low global inventories are driving the front of the crude complex. The spread between prompt Brent and WTI remains wide, consistent with geopolitical risk premia centered on Middle East supply and transport routes via the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea bypasses, highlighted by recent attacks on tankers and infrastructure.